Does Vandy have a shot?

Tomorrow the cats have the biggest road test they have had in awhile, maybe even since Indiana, when they take on Vandy at home. The once ranked Commodores are sitting at 17-7 and 6-3 in the SEC (third place for SEC east, fourth place all SEC). They have only beaten one currently ranked team (Marquette) and have lost 4 of their 7 games at home. These statistics don't make them seem all that tough but as we as UK fans all know, their gym often has a kryptonite effect on UK.

Memorial Gym: known for its raised court, off-placed team benches, and below-basket shot clock. This strange gym and its atmosphere have beaten us 5 of the last 6 trips there. Two losses belong to Tubby, two to Gillispie, leaving Calipari at 1-1 there. In addition to its gym, Vandy will have some decent 3-pt shooting to use against us, shooting at 39% from 3-pt land. This places them at #2 in the SEC for 3-pt shooting (behind Florida) and at #19 in the nation.

While this year's team has turned into quite the defensive force, it seems at times that our Calipari-coached teams have trouble stopping the 3 pt shot. This hasn't been a problem with easier teams of late and surprisingly wasn't a factor against the SEC's best 3-pt shooting team when Florida came to visit last weekend but part of that can be attributed to Florida missing some wide-open shots too. We let them have quite a few open shots they just didn't make.

If Vandy can hit it's threes tomorrow then that combined with their gym will give them a decent shot at making it a challenging game for us. Somehow I don't see Vandy having the cold shooting issues at home that Florida had against us in Rupp. Look for them to hit quite a few three's tomorrow and get Memorial Gym rocking early on. Once a little time elapses though and our players shake off the weirdness of the gym, they should be able to dominate the inside and make it tougher for Vandy on the perimeter too. It probably won't be the blowout Florida was, but in the end our players should pull off another win. Put this game in early January and the outcome might be different. By now though, we should be able to handle the pressure (and gym).

More UK-Vandy stats and analysis can be found on Rivals site