LSU on the Bubble

Tonight presents a huge bubble buster game in the SEC between LSU and Tennessee.  Both teams must win their last two games and make a run in the SEC tournament to have a chance at the big dance.  With a little help from RPI Forecast we can see first what LSU must do to get their RPI into a range that could put them waiting on Selection Sunday.

Final Record	W-L pctg.	Expected RPI	Probability
23-11	67.65%	24.9	0.15%
22-11	66.67%	29.0	0.03%
22-12	64.71%	37.2	0.83%
21-12	63.64%	50.7	4.34%
20-12	62.50%	66.8	16.53%
21-13	61.76%	46.7	1.81%
19-12	61.29%	79.8	13.08%
20-13	60.61%	62.1	5.66%
19-13	59.38%	75.9	23.95%
20-14	58.82%	56.8	0.38%
18-13	58.06%	91.9	16.24%
19-14	57.58%	72.5	1.02%
18-14	56.25%	84.4	8.81%
17-14	54.84%	104.6	7.16%

Going into tonight's game against Tennessee, LSU is 17-11 and 7-7 in the SEC.  They have an RPI of 70 and a Pomeroy of 86.  If LSU wins their last two games against Tennessee and Auburn and then wins two games in the SEC tournament they will have a projected RPI of 50.7.  If they make it to the Championship game in New Orleans their projected RPI jumps to 37.2 and with that strong finish they could find themselves dancing in March.