Mississippi on the Bubble

Mississippi enters the SEC Tournament having won 3 in a row after losing the 3 prior games.  Mississippi has been consistently mediocre all season long, but this is the time of the year where there those teams can make a run and play their way into the tournament.  The Rebels are 18-12 overall, 8-8 in the SEC, and currently have a 60 RPI.

Quality Wins: Alabama (32), Miami (56), Mississippi St. (64)
Bad Losses: Auburn (138)

Using RPI Forecast we can get an idea of what their RPI will be based on how far they advance in New Orleans.

Final Record	W-L pctg.	Expected RPI	Probability
22-12	64.71%	23.0	0.59%
21-13	61.76%	33.3	6.92%
20-13	60.61%	46.8	19.29%
19-13	59.38%	56.7	39.34%
18-13	58.06%	77.7	33.85%

For Mississippi to get on the bubble they must beat Auburn on Thursday and Tennessee on Friday.  Getting to the semifinals still only puts their RPI at 46.8 and I think would leave them on the outs Sunday.  Mississippi must get to the Championship game and then their RPI jumps to 33.3.  This coupled with the run in the SEC Tournament should put them in by the selection committee.