Friday, March 2, 2012

Mississippi St. On the Bubble


Three weeks ago Mississippi St. seemed like a lock for the NCAA Tournament.  Then came a loss at home to GEORGIA...yes that Georgia team that Kentucky dismantled.  Losses to LSU, Auburn, Kentucky, and Alabama followed.  Mississippi St. was able to stop the losing streak by beating South Carolina but it took overtime against the worst team in the SEC.  Using RPI Forecast we'll take a look at how they must finish to feel comfortable on Selection Sunday.

Final RecordW-L pctg.Expected RPIProbability
25-1071.43%23.20.66%
24-1168.57%36.13.93%
23-1167.65%50.88.31%
22-1166.67%64.333.32%
23-1265.71%46.10.75%
21-1165.62%79.924.21%
22-1264.71%59.71.84%
21-1263.64%72.515.12%
20-1262.50%93.211.85%

Currently they are 20-10 overall and 7-8 in SEC play.  Tomorrow at home against Arkansas is an absolute must win as a 7-9 SEC record just won't cut it.  If Mississippi St. were to win on Thursday but lose Friday of the SEC tournament their RPI would be at around 64.3.  If they win Friday but lose Saturday it jumps to 50.8.  With the way they finished the regular season I don't think at RPI of 50 is going to leave them safe.  If they were to get to the SEC championship game and lose their RPI would be around 36.1.  This looks a lot better plus making a deep run in the SEC tournament should make the selection committee take notice.

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