Wednesday, March 7, 2012

Tennessee on the Bubble


Tennessee enters the SEC Tournament having won 8 of 9 and generally looking like a completely different team with the addition of Jarnell Stokes.  The Volunteers are 17-13 overall, 10-6 in the SEC, and currently have a 75 RPI.

Quality Wins: Vanderbilt (27), Florida x 2 (29), Connecticut (34), Mississippi (60)
Bad Losses: Georgia (112), Charleston (121), Oakland (144), Autin Peay (193)

Using RPI Forecast we can get an idea of what their RPI will be based on how far they advance in New Orleans.

Final RecordW-L pctg.Expected RPIProbability
20-1360.61%40.73.56%
19-1457.58%57.120.69%
18-1456.25%77.740.19%
17-1454.84%89.535.55%

Tennessee's numbers could have been helped by playing on Thursday, but you can't complain about a 2 seed.  With a win Friday and loss in the semifinals the RPI would actually decrease to 77.7 and I just don't think it will be a deep enough run for the committee to take notice.  If they were to make it to the Championship game and lose the RPI goes to 57.1.  The number isn't great but combined with how they finished the regular season, getting to the SEC Championship game, and their record with Jarnell Stokes I think they'll be on the right side of the bubble come Sunday.

4 comments: