Mississippi St. enters the SEC Tournament having won 2 in a row after losing the 5 prior games. The losing streak tanked their near lock status for the tournament, but as it stands I still have them in on my current Bracketology. The Bulldogs are 21-10 overall, 8-8 in the SEC, and currently have a 64 RPI.
Quality Wins: Vanderbilt (27), Alabama (32), West Virginia (45), Mississippi (60), Tennessee (75)
Bad Losses: Georgia (112), Auburn (138)
Using RPI Forecast we can get an idea of what their RPI will be based on how far they advance in New Orleans.
| Final Record | W-L pctg. | Expected RPI | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25-10 | 71.43% | 19.3 | 1.31% |
| 24-11 | 68.57% | 31.7 | 9.95% |
| 23-11 | 67.65% | 43.6 | 9.52% |
| 22-11 | 66.67% | 57.4 | 44.39% |
| 21-11 | 65.62% | 79.6 | 34.82% |
Getting to play on Thursday is going to help the Bulldogs numbers as long as they beat Georgia. Losing to Vandy would decrease their RPI to 57.4 and I think they would slide into the tournament unless a lot of surprise teams win their conference tournaments. If Mississippi St. beats Vandy but loses in the Semifinals their RPI would be around 43.6. I think this puts them in the completely safe zone and assures them a bid on selection Sunday. Getting to the final game puts them at 31.7 and starts to ensure a better seed.
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